來源與原文定位
查核日期:2026-10-31。下列研究均取得期刊或作者機構典藏的完整正文;新聞與Medium均核讀公開全文。引用文字為原創摘要,不是原文翻譯。新聞日期、事件日期與估計值分別處理。
原教科書
Bright, D. S., & Cortes, A. H. (2019). Principles of management. OpenStax. Chapter 2, Managerial Decision-Making。
- 2.1 Overview of Managerial Decision-Making:Deciding When to Decide;What's the Right (Correct) Answer?;What's the Right (Ethical) Answer?。
- 2.2 How the Brain Processes Information to Make Decisions: Reflective and Reactive Systems:Reactive Decision-Making;Reflective Decision-Making;The Role of Emotions。
- 2.3 Programmed and Nonprogrammed Decisions:The Decision-Making Process/Exhibit 2.4。
- 2.4 Barriers to Effective Decision-Making:Bounded Rationality;Escalation of Commitment;Time Constraints;Uncertainty;Personal Biases。
- 2.5 Improving the Quality of Decision-Making:Table 2.1、Step 3的資料及證據品質、Step 6的評估。
- 2.6 Group Decision-Making:Disadvantages of Group Decisions;How to Form a Quality Group;Table 2.3。
本教材為獨立撰寫的補充文字,原書節名作閱讀定位;未重製原書圖表、活動或段落。Access for free at https://openstax.org/books/principles-management/pages/1-introduction
學術研究
R1|綜述:雜訊與結構化判斷
Highhouse, S., & Brooks, M. E. (2023). Improving workplace judgments by reducing noise: Lessons learned from a century of selection research. Annual Review of Organizational Psychology and Organizational Behavior, 10, 519–533. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-orgpsych-120920-050708
期刊全文PDF。定位:p.520術語定義、pp.524–527 Reducing Noise/Structuring Judgment、p.529 Conclusion。主要證據來自甄選研究;不同價值取捨造成的歧見,不自動屬於雜訊。
R2|理論與既有資料再分析:雙系統觀點
Hochman, G. (2024). Beyond the surface: A new perspective on dual-system theories in decision-making. Behavioral Sciences, 14(11), Article 1028. https://doi.org/10.3390/bs14111028
期刊全文PDF。定位:§1 Introduction、§5 Case Studies、§6 Processes Within the Two Systems、§7 Summary。本輪取得18頁全文;網站重取偶有流量限制。這是修正模型的觀點,不代表學界已全面推翻雙歷程理論。
R3|實驗:有限調整與演算法採用
Dietvorst, B. J., Simmons, J. P., & Massey, C. (2018). Overcoming algorithm aversion: People will use imperfect algorithms if they can (even slightly) modify them. Management Science, 64(3), 1155–1170. https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2016.2643
作者公開正式全文。定位:p.1155 Abstract、pp.1167–1168 General Discussion。三項預測研究;不支持任何人為修改都會提高模型準確度。
R4|實驗:演算法偏好
Logg, J. M., Minson, J. A., & Moore, D. A. (2019). Algorithm appreciation: People prefer algorithmic to human judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 151, 90–103. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2018.12.005
作者公開正式全文。定位:p.90 Abstract、pp.98–99 Experiment 4 discussion、p.99 §6 General discussion。適用所研究的估計/預測任務;偏好不等於正確。
R5|實驗:錯誤AI建議
Cecil, J., Lermer, E., Hudecek, M. F. C., Sauer, J., & Gaube, S. (2024). Explainability does not mitigate the negative impact of incorrect AI advice in a personnel selection task. Scientific Reports, 14, Article 9736. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-60220-5
UCL機構庫正式全文;LMU機構庫備援。定位:p.2 Methods、p.3 Table 1與重複實驗註記、pp.4–11結果、p.12起Discussion。五項實驗共1,403人;1b與2b未另外預註冊。特定模擬甄選與解釋方式,不能概括所有AI解釋。
R6|理論綜述/概念分析:可驗證性
Fok, R., & Weld, D. S. (2024). In search of verifiability: Explanations rarely enable complementary performance in AI-advised decision making. AI Magazine, 45(3), 317–332. https://doi.org/10.1002/aaai.12182
期刊全文。定位:§4 Verifiability、§5 Appropriate Reliance、§7 Conclusion。不是全新實驗,可驗證性也不是普遍充分條件。
R7|群體實驗:觀點區辨與整合
Brodbeck, F. C., Kugler, K. G., Fischer, J. A., Heinze, J., & Fischer, D. (2021). Group-level integrative complexity: Enhancing differentiation and integration in group decision-making. Group Processes & Intergroup Relations, 24(1), 125–144. https://doi.org/10.1177/1368430219892698
期刊全文。定位:Method/Participants and Sampling Procedures、Research Design、Procedure during the laboratory session/Part 2、Discussion/Limitations and Future Research。172名學生,三種團體條件各12組四人,另28人個別條件。未測企業績效;本活動是概念啟發的教學設計。
權威新聞全文
N1|Away後續發展
Jansen, C. (2024, February 14). Away lays off 25% of internal staff. Retail Dive. 定位:正文首段及後續發言人說明。
James, D. (2025, June 2). Away appoints new CEO as it expands sales channels. Retail Dive. 定位:Dive Brief第1–2點、Dive Insight通路段落;引用5月12日公告。新聞可確認人事及通路行動,不足判斷整體重整成敗。
N2|Southwest行李政策
Chapman, M. (2025, March 11). At Southwest Airlines, checked bags will no longer fly for free. Associated Press. 定位:開頭政策段落及回顧2024年9月公司估計的段落。15億/18億美元均為預測,不是實績。
N3|CrowdStrike更新事故
Associated Press. (2024, September 25). CrowdStrike executive apologizes to Congress for July global tech outage. 有明確日期的AP授權全文。定位:全文首段、850萬部電腦及程序改善段落。事件為7月、聽證為9月24日、該篇刊登為9月25日。
Medium專業評論
M1|不確定性與結果
Bowne-Anderson, H. (2021, January 7). Decision making in a time of crisis. O’Reilly Media on Medium. 定位:Making Predictions and Thinking Probabilistically;Risk, Probability, Impact, and Decisions。選用理由:資料科學與教育背景、O’Reilly編輯策劃,能連結機率與管理判斷;屬評論,不是新實驗。
M2|決策規則與紀錄
Byrd, K. (2023, June 19). Communication starts well before a decision is made. Bootcamp on Medium. 定位:Communicating ‘how we decide’ to build buy-in;Creating a decision log to share, learn, and iterate。選用理由:產品工作經驗,主張可轉為課堂操作;屬實務評論,不是績效因果證據。